CLICK HERE for the SGI’s quarterly market commentary ‘View from the Summit’ covering Q1 2017.
Aash Shah, Senior Portfolio Manager with SGI, sits down with Jeff Brown of U.S. News & World Report for a discussion on the types of investment ratios investors should consider when researching investment opportunities. Click the link below for the article:
Summit Global Investments President & CIO Dave Harden sits down for an interview with Wallace Forbes at Forbes.com. Dave discusses why risk management is an important element in a portfolio and what sets Summit Global Investments (SGI) apart with a low volatility approach to equity investing.
On September 15, 2016, Dave Harden (President & CIO) of Summit Global Investments sat down for an interview with Chuck Jaffe from Moneylifeshow.com. Click here to view the Moneylifeshow.com site and here for the audio file of the interview.
Bryce Sutton, Summit Global Investments Managing Director, shares keen insight in his article with FA-mag.com on the investing styles of the millennial generation. He shares tips on how millennials can become more knowledgable about the stock market, how low volatility investing can coincide with their risk averse outlook toward saving for the future and how having an advisor can create a potential advantage for them as they build ties and create a relationship that can help guide them toward their investment goals.
Click here to view the article ‘Millennial Money – From Stock Shy to Stock Saavy.‘
The link below is an 8-minute mp3 audio file of David Harden’s interview with Pimm Fox and Kathleen Hays of Bloomberg’s Taking Stock podcast on 8/16/2016. David discusses SGI’s low volatility strategy and how it works within various market environments.
Wall Street kicked off the New Year with the worst start since 2008 with the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeting more than 450 points at one point on opening day, Jan. 4. By the end of the week, the Dow closed down triple digits, ending one of the worst first weeks ever. The markets have continued this week, now entering correction territory. Could the recent market turmoil be a harbinger of more in 2016? With an open presidential election, a rise in global terror, a sluggish economy and upcoming interest rate increases, 2016 may be in for a bumpy year on Wall Street.
There are a number of pessimistic predictions being floated around, with some warning about a recession or even a full-on crash. Slowing global growth has been one of the predominant investing themes in 2015. As the shockwaves from Europe, China and the developing markets spread, investors are wary that the U.S. might be the next powerhouse to fall to the global slowdown.
Even though these estimates may prove correct, they are probably too pessimistic. The $73.5 trillion global economy is expected to grow 3.1 percent in 2015 and 3.6 percent in 2016, according to the latest International Monetary Fund projections. These projections may prove too optimistic – China accounts for approximately 30% of global growth. As China fails to grow, so goes the global economy.
If we take a step back, a U.S. economic recession still seems unlikely, though the risk of such event is rising. The economy might not perform as well as we would like, but it does not seem to be like any of the economic disasters we’ve seen in the past. From a technical standpoint, a recession is defined as two negative quarters of GDP. If you look at the current economic situation in those terms, I don’t see a recession happening in 2016. However, if there were continued extenuating circumstances, such as extreme weather conditions that limited the consumer from putting money to work or an emerging market collapse, could it be possible? Yes. But typically, even in the event of extreme weather, we’ve seen resiliency from consumers as they have been eager to go out and spend money. Though growth may be slower and happen at a sluggish rate, I don’t see two quarters of negative GDP in 2016.
However, two sectors that I see doing well in 2016 are defensive sectors and Technology. They’re both positioned pretty well right now. Defensive sectors tend to provide better protection during market volatility while Technology continues to innovate, and it’s likely to see continued growth in 2016.
More specifically, Forbes reported that some technology companies, particularly ones like IMAX, are prepared for big performances at the end of 2015 and into 2016. With blockbusters like Star Wars: Episode VII, Spectre, and The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2 all having hit theatres through the end of 2015, look out for extreme growth in IMAX and other tech companies. For areas I am not too positive on are anything tied to emerging markets or commodities, e.g., Materials, Industrials and Energy. I just don’t see them doing as well as the prior Tech and defensive sectors.
So how do investors navigate through an upcoming year of uncertainty? To position a portfolio for a successful year, investors should adjust their thinking from short-term to long-term. Now is the time to look to strategies that are less vulnerable to these mounting economic and political risks. In a climate like this, low volatility strategies are primed to do well in 2016.
David Harden is President and Chief Investment Officer at Summit Global Investments, an SEC registered investment adviser specializing in low volatility investment strategies. Learn more at www.summitglobalinvestments.com.
In its simplest interpretation, Harry Markowitz’s modern portfolio theory demonstrates that greater risk is positively correlated with return and thus greater risk provides investors with a greater return.
Yet numerous research papers, including research by S&P Dow Jones Indices, show that this just isn’t true. In fact, higher-risk equities tend to produce lower investment returns versus lower-risk equities over full market cycles.
As we prepare to ring in the New Year, 2016 is positioned to be a year of unknown risks, both economically and politically. Recently global terror has dominated the news cycle, with the attacks in Paris sparking some of the strongest security concerns in 15 years and new threats emerging each day. Terror threats like these form an atmosphere of uncertainty and heightened political risk, especially heading into a U.S. presidential election year.
The 2016 presidential race is a source a great uncertainty in and of itself. In the last 100 years, the stock market has returned only a 2.1% average return during open (no incumbent) presidential election years. Markets historically do well when there is gridlock in Washington, particularly when it’s a Democratic president facing a Republican Congress, like our current situation. This election could very well alter that dynamic.
Furthermore, the debates have featured two parties with radically different visions for the future of America, and while voters might want change, markets are generally fickle to major policy changes and their inherent risks.
The New Year will also be full of economic unknowns. This U.S. economy is not moving at the pace most would hope following a seven-year recovery. Oil is low, inflation is not in sight and the Fed is under a great deal of pressure to begin raising interest rates despite concerns over the strength of the economy.
What does this mean for investors? This atmosphere of uncertainty is likely to create short-term market volatility throughout 2016. And that raises another question: which strategies are best suited to weather a year full of ups and downs? Evidence shows that those who take a long-term, low volatility approach to the markets have reasons to be quite optimistic.
To position a portfolio for a successful year, investors may adjust their thinking from short-term to long-term and look to a strategy with less vulnerability to these mounting economic and political risks. In a climate like this, low volatility strategies are primed to do well.
The coming year will likely be a rollercoaster ride, so investors should buckle up with a plan that’s low-risk and focused on the advantage of future volatility.
David Harden is President and Chief Investment Officer at Summit Global Investments, an SEC registered investment adviser specializing in low volatility investment strategies.
Season’s Greetings & Merry Christmas!
As this week comes to a close, the markets struggled to find their way amongst the noise in Washington, D.C. ”Risk on” was one of the themes this week in the U.S. equities markets as we had the two largest back to back increases in the S&P 500 in over 5 months. ”Risk on” is a term to describe investor money flows into higher Beta, higher Standard Deviation, more volatile names. For example, If a stock trades at a P/E of 100, investment managers allocating into those names aren’t worried about the volatility these names introduce to portfolios. Investors start swinging for the fences by allocating into these names. Their thesis being that these companies will enhance their portfolio returns with faster and higher appreciation vs. other names. Hence, “risk on”.
The SGI Low Volatility Equity Model seeks to protect investors from experiencing these wild fluctuations, by limiting the downside risk in the portfolio while meaningfully participating in the upside markets historically offer. On a day to day basis this sometimes is hard to see in the SGI portfolio, especially if the market was up and SGI is down. The return path of the SGI Low Volatility Equity Model will differ from the return path of the S&P 500. Even though the portfolio stays 100% invested in equities the portfolio does not behave in the same manner as the markets.
Since September 14, 2012, the day the S&P 500 peaked for the year the Low Volatility Equity Strategy experience minor drawdowns of around 2%. At the end of 2012 clients of SGI were essentially flat during this period. However, the S&P 500 ended the year more than 3% off the highs of September 14, 2012.
For the most recent performance please visit: Morningstar.
Disclaimer: Past returns are no guarantee of future results. Summit Global Investments U.S. Low Volatility Equity Mutual Fund is sold by prospectus only.